What Sports Bettors Need to Know About the Hot Hand Fallacy


What Sports Bettors Need to Know About the Hot Hand Fallacy

In sports betting, Hot Hand Fallacy is quite common and is not only used by the bettors but also by the coaches and managers. Hot Hand Fallacy is basically conjunction of two words, Hot Hand and Fallacy. The Hot Hand signifies the player is consistently performing, and in the upcoming match, he will maintain that same level, whereas, Fallacy means ‘Not Always True.’ 

So, if you compile both the terms, it means it is not necessary that the player who has given the best in the last match will also be the star in the upcoming match.

Let us understand with an example.

Suppose a soccer goalie has saved 3 goals at the start of a match, then it is not necessary that in the entire game, he will save the goals. In Hot hand Fallacy, the predictions are made based on the immediate performance or the small samples collected from the events. In short, Hot Hand Fallacy is a prediction made without logical reasoning, and it is quite common in sports betting.

Key Facts of Hot Hand Fallacy that Every Sports Bettors Must Know

Hot Hand Fallacy is not only confined to sports betting; it is also used in day-to-day life. 

For instance, if you take the lottery on Tuesday and you have already won 3 times, it is not necessary that you will win the lottery every Tuesday. Likewise, in Sports betting also, most bettors bet on the player’s last performance avoiding his overall performance. It’s just luck that the bettor wins due to Hot Hand Fallacy because in sports betting, ample factors are involved, such as a player’s stats, attacking/defensive strength, and others. 

Now, let’s see what things you should keep in mind related to Hot Hand Fallacy.

Hot Hand Fallacy Trend

In sports betting, the bettors’ prime motto is to win the game no matter whether the logic is involved. The bettors usually follow the short period of the events, and they think they will win because they already won in the past, but the fact isn’t as expected. Check out Sbobet who’s the best bookmaker company in Thailand.

In Hot Hand Fallacy, few data are kept in consideration, but in conventional sports betting, the database is installed, and using the same, the odds are prepared by the bookmaker. So, you must avoid the Hot Hand Fallacy trend and focus on the player’s past performance, team’s strength, and other factors in winning the bet.

It is noted that, in the gambling sector, Hot Hand Fallacy is very much famous because everyone wants to earn more money, and if they are already winning through this approach, then they won’t hesitate to move ahead. Gambling betting mostly works on luck, such as casinos, and here you can’t do an analysis of past data; all matter is the money, and to win the bet, Hot Hand Fallacy is good. But in sports betting, many factors are associated, and you must consider them to win the bet instead of following the Hot Hand Fallacy.

Psychological Effect

Everyone in the world makes predictions about something to get a good result in the future. Most people act on the other’s prediction; the best example is the weather forecast; if a weather scientist says it will rain today, you will carry an umbrella to avoid the mess, so this activity is dependent on the scientist’s prediction. 

Likewise, you notice in the stock market; many people buy or sell the stock as per the expert economist’s prediction. So, directly or indirectly, Hot Hand Fallacy is connected to our life, and it has made an impact on the brain, too, and this is the reason why the sports bettors choose to go with this approach.

Is Chunk of Data the source of Hot Hand Fallacy?

The Government officials prepare the Demographics chart of a Nation using the large data with an aim to know the population behavior such as birth rate, mortality rate, transition phase (rural-to-urban), and others. To do this task consumes too much time because of the large data, but if the demographic is done for a region, then short data is required, and it will give the result. But compiling all such small data may not give the actual figure as fetched by large data. It proves that small data has its own significance, and in Hot Hand Fallacy, it plays a major role. 

The small data may comprise a player’s last match performance or live performance on a match (5-20 min). If a player performs as per the bettor’s expectation, their small data worked, and they earned good money. So, it is not absurd to say small data is one of the sources of the Hot Hand Fallacy.

How To Get Rid of Hot Hand Fallacy?

It is very much difficult to get rid of the intuitional prediction because you are following the same from the long term. But, to get rid of anything which affects you is not impossible; you must be determined to focus on the analysis approach of sports, search for data, collect them, and study them carefully. However, it is time-consuming, but if you go with AI or Machine Learning utility, the job will become easier. 

Let us consider an example; if a goalie in soccer defends 3 goals in less than 10 minutes, you should not follow the trend that the goalie will defend the next goal. Here, you must look for his game statistics and past performance in a major league. Once you are done with this, you will find that your analysis and Hot hand Fallacy result is completely different.

Bottom Line

Hot Hand Fallacy is a pattern usually followed by the sports bettors with an aim to earn big. This approach deals with the sample data, and the bettors are not sure they will win, but their intuition drags them to pour money on betting via this method. Nevertheless, Hot Hand Fallacy is not a good approach for sports betting, and it is always recommended to follow the analysis approach.

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